Heat risk assessment for the Brussels capital region under different urban planning and greenhouse gas emission scenarios

Urban residents are exposed to higher levels of heat stress in comparison to the rural population. As this phenomenon could be enhanced by both global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and urban expansion, urban planners and policymakers should integrate both in their assessment. One way to consider these two concepts is by using urban climate models at a high resolution. In this study, the influence of urban expansion and GHG emission scenarios is evaluated at 100 m spatial resolution for the city of Brussels (Belgium) in the near (2031-2050) and far (2081-2100) future. Two possible urban planning scenarios (translated into local climate zones, LCZs) in combination with two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) have been implemented in the urban climate model UrbClim. The projections show that the influence of GHG emissions trumps urban planning measures in each period. In the near future, no large differences are seen between the RCP scenarios; in the far future, both heat stress and risk values are twice as large for RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5. Depending on the GHG scenario and the LCZ type, heat stress is projected to increase by a factor of 10 by 2090 compared to the present-day climate and urban planning conditions. The imprint of vulnerability and exposure is clearly visible in the heat risk assessment, leading to very high levels of heat risk, most notably for the North Western part of the Brussels Capital Region. The results demonstrate the need for mitigation and adaptation plans at different policy levels that strive for lower GHG emissions and the development of sustainable urban areas safeguarding livability in cities

Revealing Kunming’s (China) historical urban planning policies through Local Climate Zones

Over the last decade, Kunming has been subject to a strong urbanisation driven by rapid economic growth and socio-economic, topographical and proximity factors. As this urbanisation is expected to continue in the future, it is important to understand its environmental impacts and the role that spatial planning strategies and urbanisation regulations can play herein. This is addressed by (1) quantifying the cities' expansion and intra-urban restructuring using Local Climate Zones (LCZs) for three periods in time (2005, 2011 and 2017) based on the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tool (WUDAPT) protocol, and (2) cross-referencing observed land-use and land-cover changes with existing planning regulations. The results of the surveys on urban development show that, between 2005 and 2011, the city showed spatial expansion, whereas between 2011 and 2017, densification mainly occurred within the existing urban extent. Between 2005 and 2017, the fraction of open LCZs increased, with the largest increase taking place between 2011 and 2017. The largest decrease was seen for low the plants (LCZ D) and agricultural greenhouse (LCZ H) categories. As the potential of LCZs as, for example, a heat stress assessment tool has been shown elsewhere, understanding the relation between policy strategies and LCZ changes is important to take rational urban planning strategies toward sustainable city development

A new method to assess fine-scale outdoor thermal comfort for urban agglomerations

In urban areas, high air temperatures and heat stress levels greatly affect human thermal comfort and public health, with climate change further increasing the mortality risks. This study presents a high resolution (100 m) modelling method, including detailed offline radiation calculations, that is able to efficiently calculate outdoor heat stress for entire urban agglomerations for a time period spanning several months. A dedicated measurement campaign was set up to evaluate model performance, yielding satisfactory results. As an example, the modelling tool was used to assess the effectiveness of green areas and water surfaces to cool air temperatures and wet bulb globe temperatures during a typical hot day in the city of Ghent (Belgium), since the use of vegetation and water bodies are shown to be promising in mitigating the adverse effects of urban heat islands and improving thermal comfort. The results show that air temperature reduction is most profound over water surfaces during the afternoon, while open rural areas are coolest during the night. Radiation shading from trees, and to a lesser extent, from buildings, is found to be most effective in reducing wet bulb globe temperatures and improving thermal comfort during the warmest moments of the day

The urban climate of Ghent, Belgium : a case study combining a high-accuracy monitoring network with numerical simulations

As urban environments have a specific climate that poses extra challenges (e.g. increased heat stress during heat waves), gaining detailed insight into the urban climate is important. This paper presents the high-accuracy MOCCA (MOnitoring the City's Climate and Atmosphere) network, which is monitoring the urban climate of the city of Ghent since July 2016. The study illustrates the complementarity between modelling and observing the urban climate. Two different modelling approaches are used: 1 km resolution runs of the SURFEX land surface model and 100 m resolution runs of the computationally cheaper UrbClim boundary layer model. On the one hand, urban models are able to simulate the spatial variability of the urban climate. As such, these models serve as a tool to help deciding on the locations of the measurement stations. On the other hand, the MOCCA observations are used to validate the high-resolution urban model experiments for the summer (July-August-September) of 2016. Our results demonstrate that the models capture the nighttime intra-urban temperature differences, but they are not able to reproduce the observed daytime temperature differences which are determined by the micro-scale environment

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The World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) is a community initiative to collect worldwide data on urban form (i.e., morphology, materials) and function (i.e., use and metabolism). This is achieved through crowdsourcing, which we define here as the collection of data by a bounded crowd, composed of students. In this process, training data for the classification of urban structures into Local Climate Zones (LCZ) are obtained, which are, like most volunteered geographic information initiatives, of unknown quality. In this study, we investigated the quality of 94 crowdsourced training datasets for ten cities, generated by 119 students from six universities. The results showed large discrepancies and the resulting LCZ maps were mostly of poor to moderate quality. This was due to general difficulties in the human interpretation of the (urban) landscape and in the understanding of the LCZ scheme. However, the quality of the LCZ maps improved with the number of training data revisions. As evidence for the wisdom of the crowd, improvements of up to 20% in overall accuracy were found when multiple training datasets were used together to create a single LCZ map. This improvement was greatest for small training datasets, saturating at about ten to fifteen sets

Spatial characterisation of heat risk in the Brussels Capital Region, Belgium

Urban residents are exposed to higher levels of heat stress in comparison to the rural population. For the city of Brussels, we explore the influence of urban planning and global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) for the near (2031-2050) and far (2081-2100) future. We implemented two urban planning expansion scenarios (translated into Local Climate Zones, LCZ) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). The projections show that the influence of GHG emissions trumps urban planning measures in each of the two periods. In the near future, no large differences are noted between the RCP scenarios. In the far future on the contrary, both heat stress and risk values are twice as large for RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5. Depending on the GHG scenario and the LCZ, heat stress is projected to increase with a factor of 10 by 2090 compared to the present-day climate and urban planning conditions. The imprint of vulnerability and exposure is clearly visible in the heat risk assessment, leading to very high levels of heat risk most notable for the north-western part of the Brussels Capital Region (BCR). The results demonstrate the need for mitigation and adaptation plans at different policy levels that strive for lower GHG emissions and the development of sustainable urban areas safeguarding livability in future cities

Revealing Kunming's (China) Historical Urban Planning Policies Through Local Climate Zones

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Heat risk assessment for the Brussels capital region under different urban planning and greenhouse gas emission scenarios

Urban residents are exposed to higher levels of heat stress in comparison to the rural population. As this phenomenon could be enhanced by both global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and urban expansion, urban planners and policymakers should integrate both in their assessment. One way to consider these two concepts is by using urban climate models at a high resolution. In this study, the influence of urban expansion and GHG emission scenarios is evaluated at 100 m spatial resolution for the city of Brussels (Belgium) in the near (2031-2050) and far (2081-2100) future. Two possible urban planning scenarios (translated into local climate zones, LCZs) in combination with two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) have been implemented in the urban climate model UrbClim. The projections show that the influence of GHG emissions trumps urban planning measures in each period. In the near future, no large differences are seen between the RCP scenarios; in the far future, both heat stress and risk values are twice as large for RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5. Depending on the GHG scenario and the LCZ type, heat stress is projected to increase by a factor of 10 by 2090 compared to the present-day climate and urban planning conditions. The imprint of vulnerability and exposure is clearly visible in the heat risk assessment, leading to very high levels of heat risk, most notably for the North Western part of the Brussels Capital Region. The results demonstrate the need for mitigation and adaptation plans at different policy levels that strive for lower GHG emissions and the development of sustainable urban areas safeguarding livability in cities.status: publishe